Predictions 2024
Stablecoins
• Stablecoin supply hits $200b (from $135b today)
• Stables end the year doing 80% of onchain transaction value vs liquid tokens
• Tokenized US Treasuries hits $1.5b (up from $450m today)
• Winning stables for next year: FDUSD, PYUSD, USDM (Mountain), USDe (Ethena)
• Tether does NOT suffer a major adverse legal or regulatory event
• Stables on Solana reach $15b (~$2b today)
Bitcoin
• First Bitcoin ZK rollups launched (initially as a sovereign rollup)
• Bitcoin hardlines fail to filter ordinals/inscriptions; pools like Ocean gain <1% hashrate
• Bitcoin ETFs attract at least $20b of flows in year 1
• Bitcoin is flat week of ETF approval but touches $80k in 2024
• At least two nation states announce they are mining Bitcoin at the sovereign level
Ethereum
• ETH is net deflationary over ’24
• Spot ETH ETF approved
• ETHBTC ends year at .075 or higher (.055 right now) (implying 6k ETH if BTC 80k, or 3.7k ETH at BTC 50k)
DeFi / NFTs
• DeFi lending (uncollat) hits $1b (up from $500m today)
• Prediction market TVL reaches $100m (up from $10-33m today [defillama])
• Top 3 NFT chains by trading volume to end 2024: ETH, BTC, Solana (in order)
• Major (non-crypto native) brands sell $100m worth of ‘phygital’ goods in 2024
Adoption
• At least one smartphone manufacturer adds blockchain timestamping to images as part of a provenance proof / ‘attested imagery’
• Crypto AI projects (airbnb for GPUs etc) largely fail to take off
• At least three jurisdictions pass Proof of Reserve legislation or regulatory guidance
• Helium/ DePIN is considered a breakout success demonstrating “real crypto utility”
• Stablecoins continue to be the major driver of adoption globally
